CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 06/03 - 06Z MON 07/03 2005
ISSUED: 05/03 23:31Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the central Mediterranean.

SYNOPSIS

Large-scale upper low anchored over central Europe ... is exhibiting several perturbations at its periphery ... one of which is progged to amplify and cross the NW and north-central Mediterranean Regions during the period. In association with this feature ... weak cyclogenesis is expected to commence over the Tyrrhenian Sea by Sunday midday. Downstream vort max will continue to maintain fairly intense and extensive SFC low which is FCST to track slowly from Moldavia into the Belarus. This setup will continue to promote advection of unseasonably cold air into all except the very SE parts of Europe.

DISCUSSION

...central Mediterranean...
BOLAM and GFS 850 hPa theta-e fields suggest presence of secondary frontal boundary to be located over the central Mediterranean Sea by the beginning of the FCST period ... with a frontal wave forming along this boundary over the Tyrrhenian Sea in the early afternoon hours downstream from approaching vort max. Models show ill-defined/weak regions of CAPE over much of the Mediterranean Sea ... and current thinking is that any convection is likely to be very shallow ... growing in essentially neutral thermodynamic environments.

One focus for convective development will likely exist along the cold front of the weak frontal wave ... with cellular ... but shallow ... convection and isolated TSTMS also expected north of this feature over the Sea.

Deep-layer shear should be moderately strong but confidence in severe evolution is quite low given meager thermodymic support/shallow nature of the convection. Expect an isolated wind gust approaching severe levels ... small hail and maybe a waterspout or two ... but organizd severe TSTM threat should be rather low.

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